“This too shall pass” (این نیز بگذرد, : īn nīz bogzarad) is an adage used around the world which is thought to originate from the Sufi writings of medieval Persia.
More recently however, Abraham Lincoln used the phrase in a speech in 1839, long before he became the 16th President of the United States.
Lincoln said, “It is said an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him the words: “And this, too, shall pass away.” How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! — how consoling in the depths of affliction! “And this, too, shall pass away.”
How very appropriate is that simple and yet meaningful adage to our world today!
The Covid 19 Corona virus is here today, but it too shall with certainty pass away. این نیز بگذرد, : īn nīz bogzarad. That much we know! What we don’t know is when it shall pass away, but the best science in the world today suggests we have it for another few months – so until sometime in the summer or even the late-summer of 2020.
As real estate agents; as Fine & Country; we are a dedicated and motivated team working together, online, every day while we wait for that great moment to arrive. We are preparing. Preparing. Preparing.
Inevitably certain things will happen to the real estate market:
1.) There will be pent-up demand.
Buyers are frustrated and the brave or the savvy are shopping online, with us, right now. It is incredible with the tools we have today, as agents, what we can do. Online valuations, online walk-throughs – the possibilities are endless. It’s simply about thinking differently, and finding new ways to offer a real estate service that before was so “physical” (visits, appointments, prospecting etc).
2.) There will be terrific stock
Sales under lock-down are few, those few being either online, or carry-overs from pre-Covid days. While some properties may come off the market during this time, there will also be a surge of new properties coming onto the market afterwards; why? Because people will always need to sell, just as people will always need to buy. So, there should be a fantastic selection of property on the market after Covid 19.
3.) People will be desperate for a holiday
After months of confinement, people will be desperate to go on holiday. Thus, our rentals colleagues are also preparing. Preparing. Preparing for a late-summer surge.
4.) High demand & High levels of High quality stock at Fair prices
A market situation that is likely unprecedented awaits us; a market where there is pent up demand AND pent up supply. We anticipate a rush of sales and a rush of visits to our fair country.
5.) Renaissance follows famine or the plague, as can be seen in history.
Italy was the epicentre of the Black Plague, and although we are NOT living in the fourteenth century, there are a few interesting points to take from that period in our history. In analysing it Francisco Galán, a Risk Analyst in Madrid concludes:
This social and demographic evolution gives rise to the Renaissance…. which can be analyzed from different standpoints. Society had been plunged into depression and sadness, and the general state of unknowing gives rise to many fears. While it may seem incongruous, the reduction in population also stimulated economic growth.
Ultimately, we have to ask ourselves if it is possible that a tragedy on this scale can alone cause so many changes as to bring about the end of the Middle Ages. While there are many different theories and interpretations, it was clearly a decisive factor for change, and one for which the society of the fifteenth century was not prepared.
The Black Death devastated Italian society… it led to great socio-economic, cultural and religious changes. After the initial horrors of the plague, Italian society staged a spectacular recovery. Italy became richer than before. The impact of the plague reduced the influence of the Catholic Church as diminished, and the culture became more secular. The new social mobility meant that individualism came to be respected. The Black Death unleashed the forces in Italian society that made the Renaissance possible. (source: dailyhistory.org)
2020 is not 2008. We expect the bounce-back to be rapid and we have to all be ready for that. More on this topic in our next blog post…
Contact us directly for any of your property purchase or sale questions in the South of France.
Tel: +33 (0)4 92 59 25 93
* With over 18 years of experience, we offer an in house turn-key property solution on the French Riviera and into Provence, including a full buyers search service, accompaniment through the entire purchase process, property management after purchase, and rentals. Additionally, we have established trusted partnerships with English speaking mortgage brokers, currency experts, lawyers, financial advisors, banks and more; all of whom we would be delighted to introduce you to, to facilitate your property purchase in the South of France.