Why was recovery so slow after the 2008 economic crisis, and why should 2020 be different?
The collapse of 2008 happened because there were serious problems in the world’s economies and the property bubble burst; credit far out-valued the properties that were supposed to have guaranteed inflated loans, banks were exposed and collapsed, and governments were reluctant / unable / slow to react. They were paralysed and in shock. In 2008, there was nothing in place to support commerce and industry. It was each man for himself. Businesses and economies failed worldwide.
In 2020 economies were picking up when the virus hit, and the world, economically, was in a good place. We are part of an international real estate think-tank, with Australia, the UK, the USA, France and South Africa involved. Every one of these countries, except South Africa for specific reasons, was experiencing positive growth and a strong real estate market. It was not a mistake made by bad policies that caused what we are going through now, but rather, a “freak of nature”.
Governments worldwide were quick to realise that there was a problem to deal with and immediately started to put measures in place to help businesses, large and small. Trillions of dollars have been poured in. Salaries subsidised, financial concessions and debt-forgiveness programmes were instantly put in place, tax relief, reductions in social charges and allowances left and right with businesses falling over themselves to help each other with delayed payment schemes and much more. There is good will and a feeling of togetherness, and substantial government support to keep businesses alive.
Governments and businesses alike have realised that this a short term problem; it has nothing to do with poor fundamentals in the world’s economies, and therefore the bounce-back is expected to be rapid.
That’s how 2008 and 2020 are different, very very different.
As we alluded to in our most recent blog post, the Rennaissance was born after the Black Plague.